What do Americans think about presidential pardons?
New poll finds pardon abuse is unpopular across party lines
Over 1,000 people have been convicted of or are facing pending charges connected to the January 6th insurrection — including Donald Trump. And, on at least 10 different occasions, Trump has promised to pardon them. A few commentators also assume — in our view, incorrectly — that, if elected, he could even pardon himself, erasing consequences for his own criminal charges.Â
The legal dynamics of the pardon power are nuanced (read more here). But what about the political dynamics? What do voters think about the limits of the pardon power?Â
Yesterday, in partnership with YouGov, we released a new poll exploring voter attitudes about the pardon power across 43 battleground congressional districts. (You may have read about the poll in yesterday’s New York Times On Politics newsletter.)
The poll is the first of its kind to assess how voters are thinking about the idea of pardoning those convicted of crimes related to January 6.Â
The findings are unequivocal: voters are very sour on the idea of January 6 pardons. The survey also found that voters oppose self-pardons, as well as pardons for family members or staff. And it’s not just one side: the survey found that opposition to all of these potential pardons is cross-partisan.Â
Some highlights:
There is substantial, cross-partisan opposition to January 6 pardons
Perhaps the most surprising finding in this poll is how strongly voters oppose pardons for those convicted of certain January 6 related crimes, such as: assaulting police officers (77 percent overall, 57 percent of Republicans), assaulting members of the press (71 percent, 47 percent of Republicans), and using a deadly or dangerous weapon (78 percent, 59 percent of Republicans). Strong majorities of independents, who play an obviously important role in these battleground districts, also strongly oppose pardons for any of the surveyed crimes.
Interestingly, opposition to pardons for January 6-related crimes is also particularly strong among traditionally Republican-leaning constituencies. For example, among current and former members of the military, 63 percent oppose pardons for those convicted of assaulting police officers. Among rural voters, 72 percent disagree with pardoning those convicted of using a deadly or dangerous weapon.
Voters are concerned that January 6 pardons may lead to future political instability
According to the survey, 61 percent of voters — including 57 percent of independents — are also worried that January 6 pardons will encourage future political unrest.
This concern about potential ramifications is especially concentrated among young voters. Seven in 10 voters under 30 think that January 6 pardons would be cause for concern about the future. (To be clear, a majority of older voters, too, agree that pardons for January 6 actors are likely to encourage future political unrest.)Â
Side note: This concern is far from unfounded. Our research on accountability processes around the world finds that countries that fail to deliver accountability for past crimes that threaten democracy are far more likely to see a recurrence.
Substantial majorities of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats disapprove of self-serving pardons
Zooming out, the poll finds skepticism of certain pardons that extend beyond January 6th.Â
A significant majority of voters disapprove of each of the following potential pardon abuses:Â
Presidents pardoning themselves — 78 percent of voters disagree, including 59 percent of Republicans.
Presidents pardoning campaign or White House staffers — 69 percent disagree, including 50 percent of Republicans.
Presidents pardoning family members — 77 percent disagree, including 64 percent of Republicans. (Notable: 89 percent of Biden voters feel this way!)Â
Democrats and Republicans rarely agree on much these days. But, perhaps surprisingly, the question of pardon abuses (including for participation in January 6th) mostly bucks this trend.Â
This poll demonstrates that there is a clear, cross-partisan consensus on what constitutes misuse of the presidential pardon power. Voters intuitively understand that the pardon power is a tool to serve the public interest, not personal interests.
Check out the entire poll here.