Part Two: The governing tools autocratic henchmen want to turn against us
“I will use every power at my disposal"
Last week, we covered how The Authoritarian Playbook for 2025 would transform the federal government if it were implemented. (Read part one here.) In short, nearly everything that falls under the federal government's purview stands at risk of becoming politicized — law enforcement, prescription drug approvals, Federal Reserve decisions, contracts, regulatory licenses, emergency relief funding, you name it.
If vindictive henchmen get control over the levers of power, it could get ugly. This week, we turn to how those henchmen could silence critics, spread fear, and coerce Americans to submit to their political agenda. We look at the tools they’ll use and what it could be like to be on the receiving end of their abuses – including how it could lead to anticipatory obedience and create a culture where Americans are scared to challenge their leaders.
The tools autocrats want to turn against us: regulations, military and law enforcement, spending power
Modern autocrats don’t typically assume power by using brute force. Instead, they usually campaign and win democratically-run elections. Then, once in office, they begin using “salami tactics” to slice away at democratic institutions and wield government resources against their people. We’ve seen this happen in Russia, Venezuela, Hungary, the Philippines, Poland, Nicaragua, India, and Turkey.
And now, an authoritarian movement in America is eyeing three vast categories of federal resources to do that here at home: regulations, military and law enforcement, and spending powers.
First, playing politics with regulations.
Trump pushed for ways to punish his critics his first term — like threatening to block the merger of AT&T and Time Warner because CNN was “wildly anti-Trump.” But his rhetoric and promises since losing the 2020 election have become even more adversarial.
Today, he and his allies are forthright about their desire to expand government power to reward loyalists and punish critics.
“If I win and somebody wants to run against me, I call my attorney general. I say, listen, indict him. ‘Well, he hasn’t done anything wrong that we know of’ — I don’t know, indict him on income tax evasion, you’ll figure it out.”
Trump’s defenders say we shouldn’t take his threats seriously because, for one, he didn’t prosecute his 2016 campaign opponent Hillary Clinton, despite all the chants to “lock her up.”
But abuses to target critics and dissenters can encompass more than prosecution.
Federal agencies have a range of tools to carry out the work of government and run the country — in addition to criminal investigation and prosecution. These administrative and regulatory authorities make sure protections like safety and environmental laws are enforced. Federal law helps to provide relief in disasters, administers grants and loans, and enables the purchase of critical national security infrastructure.
Trump sees these authorities as a potential means to coerce loyalty and curb dissent, making government aid, contracts, licenses, merger approvals, tax benefits, permits, civil penalties, relief aid, grants, and regulatory waivers contingent on showing him personal fidelity.
For instance, here’s Trump questioning why certain media companies, which he deemed to be “fake news,” should be permitted to stay on the air.
“I say up front, openly, and proudly, that when I WIN the Presidency of the United States, they and others of the LameStream Media will be thoroughly scrutinized for their knowingly dishonest and corrupt coverage of people, things, and events. Why should NBC, or any other of the corrupt & dishonest media companies, be entitled to use the very valuable Airwaves of the USA, FREE? They are a true threat to Democracy and are, in fact, THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! The Fake News Media should pay a big price for what they have done to our once great Country!”
To this end, Trump released a policy video saying he would put the Federal Trade Commission and Federal Communications Commission “under presidential authority.”
Which tracks, because, as examples of authoritarianism worldwide show us, we can expect that a lot of regulatory retaliation will be directed at the corporate sector and independent media. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán — Trump’s self-professed role model — has ruthlessly used state power to coerce most media outlets and private enterprises into serving his political goals.
Read more about the risk of regulatory retaliation here.
Second, abuse of military and law enforcement power.
Under the broad umbrella of cracking down on disorder or crime — or carrying out his mass deportation agenda — Trump will balloon federal law enforcement resources to police Americans in ways that would make our country unrecognizable.
He’s explicitly called for combative policing in ways that glorify violence and reject our constitutionally protected rights to due process:
“I will use every power at my disposal ... I will use everything I can, every single power at my disposal including sending as many federal law enforcement assets as required to restore safety and peace ... Very simply, if you rob a store, you can fully expect to be shot as you are leaving that store. Shot! ... The word that they shoot you will get out within minutes and our nation, in one day, will be an entirely different place.”
Trump at the California Republican Party Convention, September 29, 2023
To “restore safety and peace,” Trump and his allies are prepared to invoke the Insurrection Act — an emergency power the president should only use in extreme cases of civil unrest — to deploy the military to police our streets.
Read more about the plans for troops on the streets here.
And, to accomplish his stated goal of conducting the “largest deportation operation in history,” Trump is planning to inflate resources at the Department of Homeland Security, deploy National Guard troops across state lines — from “red” states like Texas to “blue” states like California — and deputize local law enforcement.
These maneuvers will be used under the guise of fighting crime, with wide-scale arrests and mass deportation camps. And it won’t likely end there. History tells us that when autocrats scapegoat vulnerable communities to harness new police powers, that’s usually just the beginning.
Read more about the plans for federal law enforcement here.
Third, unlawfully blocking Congress’s spending power.
Finally, Trump aims to interfere with spending Congress has approved through something called “impoundment” — the term for withholding congressionally-approved dollars to block federal funding to people who don’t sufficiently support him and to programs he doesn’t like.
Funding the government becomes another tool for coercion when abused like this.
Read more about impoundment here.
Imagine the following scenarios:
A blue-state governor criticizes Trump’s environmental policies — until the White House threatens to block funds to repair the state’s bridges and roads to punish her for expressing her views.
A teachers' union endorses a slate of congressional candidates challenging Trump’s preferred picks, and his administration withholds federal education grants for their state until they stand down.
Trump freezes grants to nonprofits and charities whose missions he opposes, putting the work of groups that provide medical aid or stand up for senior citizens at risk.
What it would look like: a culture of silence, fear, and intimidation
We can’t predict how every scenario will pan out, exactly. But the warped use of these tools will be harmful, and that’s especially true for the most vulnerable in our society.
And those who speak out first will likely be hit hardest.
When autocrats abuse power to target challengers, they do it, in large part, to create a climate of fear. To send the message that bad things will happen to those who don’t fall in line. And even though courageous individuals may resist the pressure, many are unwilling or unable to take those risks and comply in advance to try and avoid becoming a target.
Silence snowballs.
The result is that our civil society and democratic institutions, which serve as checks on executive power, degrade. The cycle repeats, grinding over both the public and private sector, becoming ingrained in the culture. As time goes on, it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse.
Read more about the vicious cycle of “anticipatory obedience” here.
What happens next? The endgame. The autocrat stays in office, permanently.
What else we’re tracking:
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Get to know the phrase “autocratic legalism” and read how Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro used the Supreme Court to legitimize his fraudulent election count.
How the militia movement rebuilt itself after January 6th by courting law enforcement and presenting itself to new recruits as a “misunderstood club for good Samaritans.”
Thank you for the details relating Trump's rambling fantasies and promises which should be taken as threats. It's difficult but necessary, I think, to hold two possibilities in our minds at the same time:
1) These are just grandiose fantasies based on his need to make HIMSELF feel powerful and look powerful in front of his adoring followers, and, 2) He'll carry out these malevolent plans the minute he has the license to do so and the manpower to implement them, just as he did with J6.
Holding both these ideas as EQUALLY POSSIBLE may be tricky but we have to be completely prepared, yet not living in a paranoid, delusional state of paralyzing or aggressive fear. Psychological and emotional equanimity comes with the ongoing ability to balance these two beliefs, like a see-saw, in our minds at once...lightly.
Thanks Amanda for clearly laying out the real threats of a second Trump Administration. Reading Trump’s pronouncements is one thing - seeing how this can easily become reality is a wake up call that everyone needs to understand.