Reversing the vicious cycle of “anticipatory obedience”

El Paso’s Annunciation House stands up to attacks

Autocrats hasten democratic decline using a variety of well-worn tactics. Creating an environment of fear and division is key to many of them. 

People and organizations faced with this sort of threatening landscape – including those that might serve as important checks on abuses of power – are often tempted to engage in what Timothy Snyder has termed “anticipatory obedience.”

People under threat naturally do what they can to avoid injury and maximize their chances of survival. And they do the same for the organizations they run. 

Autocrats exploit this tendency toward self-preservation. They make a point of targeting one individual or organization in part to send a message to others. They want critics and opponents to decide that the threat of continuing their work is too great and that standing up to them is too risky. That’s why they often start by attacking organizations that are under-resourced or that work with marginalized populations. The intended effect is a spiral of democratic decline – a sort of feedback loop.  

Here’s how it works:

1. The autocrat sows fear and division. First, the autocrat uses the tools of government power to threaten or retaliate against a dissenter or perceived enemy, which contributes to a climate of fear and sows division. 

2. Opponents leave the field. Then, those who worry they could be next begin to take themselves off the field. They fall in line or stop opposing the autocrat out of fear of consequences even before they themselves are targeted. That leaves fewer people and organizations standing up to challenge the autocrat. 

3. Institutions falter. Without broad support (or pressure) from civil society, the institutions that should provide important checks and balances — like the courts and the media — fail to check the autocrat’s abuses of power. 

4. The autocrat becomes more powerful. The unchecked autocrat further consolidates power. 

And so on, and so on. . .

Here’s what the feedback loop looks like:

Fighting back is worth it

If the United States is going to pull itself out of this dangerous moment in our democracy, we need to reverse the doom loop. One way to do that – fight back.

That’s what a little-known Catholic charity has been doing in the face of aggressive attacks by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and they’ve been succeeding. 

Paxton has made it his mission to shut down Annunciation House, a migrant shelter in El Paso. In February, he sent a team of lawyers to Annunciation House – to literally knock on its doors. He purported to give its staff one day to turn over records dating back half a century and demanded that it identify individual residents, including names, dates of birth, medical information, and the identity of the residents' family members. When Annunciation House refused and asked a state court to intervene to block the subpoena (with the the help of Texas RioGrande Legal Aid), Paxton countersued to have the shelter shut down altogether. He referred to the shelter as a “stash house” that was engaged in “human smuggling.” Paxton’s aggressive rhetoric and abusive tactics prompted the Pope himself to weigh in, calling the investigation “sheer madness.”

In addition to the Pope, more than 430 faith-based organizations and individuals, along with a broad swath of El Paso community leaders, expressed solidarity with Annunciation House and decried the criminalization of their faith-based work. 

Then during an initial hearing in March, a state court judge described the attorney general’s demands as “unprofessional” and made with “ulterior political motive.” 

And on July 1st, the court issued a pair of rulings denying Paxton’s requests for an injunction and penalties and granting summary judgment in favor of Annunciation House. Judge Francisco Dominguez found, among other things, that the attorney general's office “failed to establish probable grounds” that Annunciation House was violating any criminal law and that the attorney general’s attempt to shut it down “violates the Texas Religious Freedom Restoration Act by substantially burdening Annunciation House’s free exercise of religion and failing to use the ‘least restrictive means’ of securing compliance with the law.”

He also wrote: 

“The record before this Court makes clear that the Texas Attorney General’s use of the request to examine documents from Annunciation House was a pretext to justify its harassment of Annunciation House employees and the persons seeking refuge. . . [T]he Attorney General chose to harass a human rights organization with impunity and with disregard to his duty to faithfully uphold the laws of Texas and the United States. As the top law enforcement officer of the State of Texas, the Attorney General has a duty to uphold all laws, not just selectively interpret or misuse those that can be manipulated to advance his own personal beliefs or political agenda.”

In other words, the judge saw Paxton’s tactics for what they were – autocratic abuses of power and a threat to the rule of law.

The battle likely isn’t over (Paxton’s office has appealed to the Texas Supreme Court). But so far, Annunciation House and those who are standing with it are winning.  We don’t yet know the final outcome in this case, but this kind of resistance matters and can serve as a model for others.

The doom loop can be reversed

Annunciation House’s battle in Texas shows us what fighting back looks like and how that can help reverse the autocratic feedback loop.  

When targets of autocratic attacks fight back – and when a broad coalition of civil society has their backs – other potential targets are less likely to engage in anticipatory obedience by taking themselves off the field. Then, in turn, the institutions of democracy are better able to function as checks on abuses of power and disrupt the autocrat’s consolidation of power.

There is a way out of this. 

But we need to see the authoritarian threat for what it is and act accordingly.