Sunday may have been the best day for global democracy in several years. In Brazil and Serbia, pro-democracy coalitions pulled off surprise victories against formidable authoritarian forces.
In Serbia, a scrappy cross-ideological opposition movement made up almost exclusively of first-time candidates — including doctors, scientists, academics, and athletes — beat the odds and scored an absolute parliamentary majority against the longtime, autocratic governing party. The opposition, running under the banner of “Student List-Students Win” (or the “Student List”), won with over 50 percent of the votes cast and the highest recorded voter turnout in decades.
And in Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a surprise victory against the far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro sought to continue the political legacy of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump-like figure who purged the civil service, weaponized institutions, and attempted a coup after he lost the 2022 election.
Bolsonaro appeared likely to win the presidency after he led the first round of presidential elections earlier this month. Prediction markets held Lula’s odds Sunday at a paltry 21 percent. But instead, Lula won by a considerable margin — over 4 million votes — pulling off the biggest electoral comeback in modern Brazilian history.
So what’s behind these surprise upsets? What can we learn with just over a week before our own high-stakes elections?
