Trump's endgame
Targeted firings, the probationary purge, and RIFs are all part of a plan: total control over the civil service
Dear Civil Servant,
We are dedicating this letter to breaking down the details of the attacks on civil servants while not losing sight of the big picture. Since day one, the Trump administration has unleashed a sweeping volley of executive orders, which have triggered cascading chaos. It is easy to focus on the madness of it all, but there is a method at work; what is unfolding is merely an endgame for what comes next. Here, we provide updates on past and future firings, ongoing litigation, some new resources, and our read on what the big picture means for you.
Probationary purge: Headed to SCOTUS
What is happening: Thousands of federal workers in the probationary stage of employment were summarily fired, many for “performance issues” that they assert — and at least one court seemed to agree — the government knew “good and well that is based on a lie.”
Legal challenges: These firings were challenged in two large cases: one in federal court in Maryland, and one in California. The judges in both of those cases ruled that the firings were likely illegal and ordered that the government reinstate thousands of federal workers. Though the government has taken some steps toward reinstatement, they have also appealed the cases— recently, all the way up to the Supreme Court, asking the high court to pause the orders of the California federal judge while the case is litigated further.
RIFs: A slow rollout and the likelihood of legal challenges
What is happening: In February, Trump issued an Executive Order that, among other things, instructed agencies to begin Reductions in Force (RIFs), which is the federal government’s term for large-scale layoffs. Those RIFs did not happen overnight, in large part because conducting a RIF is a complex, multi-step process. However, around mid-March agencies started to submit RIF plans and issue RIF notices. These steps are not all publicized, so it can be hard to figure out exactly what’s going on, but Government Executive has a good tracker of the information that we do know. The size of the RIFs seems to vary from agency to agency, with some agencies aiming to lay off under 10% of their workforce and others aiming for a much higher percentage. Many details remain unclear, like what will happen to the few thousand Department of Education employees in light of Trump’s Executive Order aimed at dismantling it.
Legal challenges: Though the government did not call it a RIF, the judge in Maryland who ordered thousands of probationary employees to be reinstated did so because he found that the firings actually qualified as RIFs — yet they did not follow the technical requirements for carrying out a RIF. Take this as a sign that RIFs can be done the right way or the wrong way, and that courts have some ability to hold the government accountable for violating the RIF rules.
The RIFs are not yet in full swing, so it’s unsurprising that there have not yet been many legal challenges. But just this week a group of schools, unions, and the American Association of University Professors has sued to stop the dismantling of the Department of Education — which includes both a challenge to Trump’s Executive Order and the RIFs at that agency.
Other attacks on the civil service
Targeted firings: The administration has used targeted firings to remove leaders at DOJ’s Executive Office of Immigration Litigation, AUSAs who prosecuted Capitol siege cases and FBI officials who investigated them, prosecutors who worked on investigations of Trump (the Jack Smith team), and a grab bag of additional senior career officials, including the Pardon Attorney, the head of DOJ Office of Information Policy, the head of the DOJ Office of Professional Responsibility, and others.
Further consolidation of OPM’s power: Trump recently issued an Executive Order that gives OPM final say over the “suitability determinations” (decisions whether a federal employee is fit to continue being a federal employee) that happen before some federal employees are placed in more permanent positions (for example, after a probationary period). This takes that authority from the employee’s actual agency, marking another big move towards the consolidation and centralization of power over civil servants. If this reminds you of Schedule F—yeah, us too. This administration is trying to unravel rules and laws that were meant to ensure civil servants are professionals serving the American people, not loyalists serving partisans.
The endgame
In terminating employees, the administration has proudly and routinely ignored the law, claiming — among other things — that Article II grants it a heretofore unrevealed power to trample Congress’ authority to organize agencies and their functions. Article II is the part of the Constitution that gives the presidency its powers. By saying ”Article II” gives Trump (and his agency heads) the power to fire whomever they want, Trump is saying his presidential power outweighs other authorities — here, the Civil Service Reform Act that Congress passed. Most importantly and troublingly, this is an attempt by the president to steal authority from the courts and Congress — two co-equal branches of government — no less the American people.
And that right there is the whole game.
If the president’s power over the federal bureaucracy is absolute, as Trump asserts, despite the laws intended to protect you, then your job is not safe. If this view of Article II triumphs, there’s not much the president can’t do to the civil service. More arbitrary firings? RIFs? Mass layoffs? Canceling whole agencies? Yes, yes, yes, yes.
You, dear civil servants, are also the canaries in the coal mine. If he can claim Article II authority to do all of these things to you and to the life-sustaining programs that you spent years running, he may also claim Article II authority to do terrible things to people across this country. Of course, he already has.
Resources
Check out these resources for helping you navigate unemployment and career transitions, including:
Upcoming webinars from Partnership for Public Service, including “How are resumes evaluated in the private sector?” and “What insights can I learn from executive search recruiters”
The Route House’s FiredFED Resources
Federal Employee Education and Assistance Fund’s Layoff Loans Program and National and Local Informational Resources
Georgetown’s Federal Workforce Transition Resources
AFGE Union’s Toolbox
Feds Forward Career Resources
Hear from real former feds across agencies:
Grassroots Comedy, a 501C3 nonprofit based in DC that works at the intersection of comedy and social justice completed short "mini-documentaries" highlighting the incredible work that Feds do every day. Three brave folks came forward to be interviewed: Ian (FDA), Van (USAID), and John (DOL)
The New York Times, They Were the Watchdogs - Hear from 16 Fired Inspector Generals
Stay informed on complex issues with explainers & issue briefs:
New explainer from Protect Democracy and Walter M. Shaub Jr.: The Mass Removal of Probationary Federal Employees is an Unlawful Reduction in Force
Protect Democracy’s fact-sheet concerning Authoritarian Attacks on Science
Protect Democracy’s new report on The Myth of Presidential Impoundment Power
This new explainer on the Basics of Anti-Discrimination Law for Federal Employees
Governing for Impact’s (GFI) issue briefs on legal challenges to Agency relocation, Agency closure, and Schedule F. Read more of GFI’s work here.
What we’re reading
ProPublica: How a Push to Amend the Constitution Could Help Trump Expand Presidential Power
Time: The Historic Dangers of Politicizing Our Civil Service
Jen Pahlka, What Musk Doesn’t Understand About the Civil Service
Bree Fram, Deny Who We Are or Harm Our Country?
Robert Frost, Fire and Ice
This publication should not be construed as legal advice on any specific facts or circumstances. The contents are intended for general information and educational purposes only, and should not be relied on as if it were advice about a particular fact situation. The distribution of this publication is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship with Protect Democracy. This publication also contains hypertext links to information created and maintained by other entities. Protect Democracy does not control or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this outside information, nor is the inclusion of a link to be intended as an endorsement of those outside sites.
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What is the point of Congress passing any laws at all if the executive will pick and choose which ones to implement (or not)??
All of this is in Project 2025!