How democracy survives around the world

How other countries have resisted and defeated authoritarianism

Since the mid-2000s, democracy advocates and policymakers have consistently warned of the threats posed by “democratic backsliding.” Indeed, 2024 marks the 18th consecutive year of declining global freedom — increasingly a result of illiberal incumbents dismantling democracy from within. 

Still, there is reason to remain hopeful amid the adverse trends of the past two decades. 

New findings from the Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem) reveal that 70% of countries that have experienced democratic backsliding over the past thirty years ultimately resisted and defeated authoritarianism. Better yet, over 90% of these countries have either fully restored or improved their democracies since the onset of backsliding. The data on democratic turnaround — “an episode of autocratization closely followed by an episode of democratization” — emphasize that backsliding is just as likely, if not more likely, to be followed by a period of democratic resurgence. 

Let that sink in: while democracy is under siege around the world, most countries that have been threatened by authoritarianism not only bounce back, they bounce back stronger.

Experts have identified several factors that contribute to successful democratic turnaround, as experienced in Brazil, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Pro-democracy forces in each of these countries challenged illiberal leaders and defeated authoritarianism by:

• Safeguarding and mobilizing a united pro-democracy coalition alongside civil society.

• Focusing on winning critical elections to remove autocrats at the ballot box.

• Resisting the lure of autocratic tactics and relying on democratic institutions to slow the pace of backsliding. 

For those concerned about the future of American democracy, these cases remind us that democratic backsliding is not as unstoppable as many would-be autocrats would like us to believe. 

In Brazil, a united pro-democracy coalition worked alongside civil society to defeat autocratic president Jair Bolsonaro at the ballot box

Soon after Jair Bolsonaro was elected president in 2018, he replaced government experts with loyalists, undermined the free press, and attacked the country’s legal and electoral systems. 

To take on Bolsonaro, a pro-democracy coalition unified around former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (usually referred to simply as “Lula”). Though not without past controversies, Lula emphasized his experience as a “consensus-builder” and tapped former rival Geraldo Alckmin to serve as his vice president. 

Civil society groups — trade unions, business associations, and cultural organizations — mobilized to support the pro-democracy coalition before the 2022 presidential election. These groups organized an open letter on “the defense of the democratic state of law,” which garnered support from business leaders and even former Bolsonaro allies. 

In the 2022 election, the united pro-democracy opposition propelled Lula to victory. 

While this was an apparent triumph for Brazilian democracy, it did not immediately reverse four years of backsliding. In an attack on democracy reminiscent of January 6, Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in a last-ditch effort to keep their preferred leader in power. In the aftermath, some questioned whether Lula’s broad coalition could survive. But leaders across the political spectrum condemned the attack, and Lula has since worked to maintain his big-tent coalition.

Key institutions were also crucial for halting Brazil’s democratic backsliding. During the 2022 campaign, the judiciary countered misinformation peddled by Bolsonaro and eventually held him accountable for his abuse of power. Likewise, the military and media remained independent throughout the campaign and post-election period. Still, criticism of the Supreme Federal Court’s efforts to combat misinformation have raised concerns of judicial overreach and prompted a legislative push to limit the court’s growing power. Though Brazil’s institutions are more fragile following Bolsonaro’s time in office, their continued independence remains vital for preventing further autocratization. 

For the Polish pro-democracy coalition, mass mobilization and a focus on winning critical elections have started to reverse nearly a decade of democratic backsliding 

Once Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS) returned to power in 2015, its illiberal leaders quickly undermined the country’s democratic institutions to consolidate power. Following in the footsteps of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, PiS co-opted Poland’s independent judiciary, media outlets, and state bureaucracy. 

By 2023, Freedom House declared that Poland had experienced the “swiftest democratic decline” across Europe. 

With the country’s institutions under increased PiS control, Poland’s civil society mobilized against the illiberal government. When the co-opted Constitutional Tribunal severely restricted reproductive rights in 2020, a groundswell of public outrage activated the pro-democracy opposition and fueled the largest protests since the fall of communism. The court’s decision reflected five years of attacks on Poland’s independent judiciary, and the public response exposed a major crack in the government’s hold on power.  

The mobilization of civil society that began in 2020 influenced the pro-democracy Civic Coalition led by former prime minister Donald Tusk. During the 2023 campaign, Tusk barnstormed the country and emphasized a pro-democracy message that spoke to those affected by the illiberal government’s overreach. Women and young voters mobilized early in support of the opposition, powering its rise throughout the campaign. Ultimately, Tusk’s cross-ideological coalition was victorious in the October 2023 parliamentary elections, which saw Poland's highest voter turnout in over a century. 

Since assuming power, Tusk and his coalition have aimed to reverse the damage inflicted by a decade of PiS rule. After the new government introduced a set of policies to repair judicial independence, the European Union stated that Poland was no longer a “clear risk of a serious breach of the rule of law.” 

Tusk’s government is well aware of the challenges that remain in reversing a decade of democratic backsliding — namely, the PiS-friendly incumbent president Andrzej Duda. To this end, Poland’s pro-democracy coalition has focused on winning critical elections to ensure the country’s democratic future. Recent pro-democracy victories in local and European Parliament elections highlight this focused approach, just as the coalition aims to maintain momentum heading into the 2025 presidential race.

And in the Czech Republic, the pro-democracy opposition unified to oust an increasingly illiberal leader before he could co-opt the country’s institutions 

In 2017, Andrej Babiš was elected prime minister after riding a populist wave into power. Though he initially campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, the billionaire Babiš sought to weaken the guardrails of Czech democracy upon taking office. Press freedom, the rule of law, and the quality of elections declined early in his tenure. 

While Babiš tried to divide the opposition, civil society remained mobilized and prepared to challenge his increasingly illiberal rhetoric. 

When the European Commission threatened to suspend the country’s E.U. funds over conflicts of interest, the “Million Moments for Democracy” movement launched and mobilized a distinctly pro-democracy coalition. Beginning in 2018, hundreds of thousands of disaffected voters rallied in support of strengthening Czech democracy and defeating Babiš. 

The Million Moments for Democracy movement forged the infrastructure to establish a successful pro-democracy coalition before the country’s 2021 parliamentary elections. Despite ideological differences, center-right and left-leaning coalitions united and won by focusing squarely on the illiberal threat posed by Babiš and restoring “democratic values.” Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, the pro-democracy coalition united again to defeat Babiš in his attempted comeback. 

The early mobilization of civil society laid the groundwork for a pro-democracy coalition to buck the backsliding trend before Babiš could consolidate enough power to fully dismantle the country’s democratic institutions. 

These cases demonstrate how a resilient pro-democracy coalition can successfully slow and reverse democratic backsliding 

Civil society and pro-democracy forces united in Brazil, Poland, and the Czech Republic to mobilize against the autocratic faction and remove illiberal leaders in critical elections.

To be clear, the strategies employed in these cases do not constitute a catch-all approach to defeating authoritarianism. Long-serving autocrats are particularly adept at dividing and weakening the pro-democracy forces that defend institutions. Indeed, authoritarian survival is more likely in countries with entrenched autocrats (e.g., Russia, Venezuela, and Hungary) — underscoring the necessity for swift pro-democracy mobilization at the onset of democratic backsliding. 

But the overwhelming lesson from around the world is simple: when autocrats succeed in fracturing the pro-democracy coalition or destroy its ability to organize, democracy tends to die. 

When the pro-democracy coalition stays united and focused on defeating the autocrat, democracy can — and usually does — survive. And in many cases, they go on to thrive.